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Prediction for CME (2026-07-07T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-07T22:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47438/-1
CME Note: This approximate CME arrival time may be the flank arrival of CME: 2026-07-07T22:12Z, as seen with a reverse shock in SOLAR-1 data starting around 2026-07-10T06:00Z. B_total reaches around 12nT. This CME may possibly interact with the preceding coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 on 2026-07-09.CME first seen to the NE beginning at 2026-07-07T22:12Z by SOHO LASCO C2, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this event is a large filament eruption seen centered at approx. N20E70 with liftoff beginning at approx. 2026-07-07T21:33Z as seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304. Field line opening, dimming and post eruptive arcades are also seen in SDO AIA 171, 193 and GOES SUVI 284.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-10T06:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-11T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60708
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Jul 2026, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 046
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 032

Coronal mass ejections: ...Another wide CME
(~115 deg) on E limb was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around
22:24 on Jul 07. This was possible associated to a filament eruption on NE
around 22:00 UTC on Jul 07. First analysis shows that a glancing blow
associated with this CME is possible at Earth on Jul 10-11...

Lead Time: 7.93 hour(s)
Difference: -30.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-09T22:04Z

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